Charlie Erith

Week 5 2022 The Network Demand Model demands a lot of patience, a commodity in short supply in today’s febrile world. This week, after resting in the off position since May 2021, the MRI signal has turned on. The short-term transaction signal has also turned on, so the NDM

Week 4 2022 As predicted last week, the long-term transaction signal has now turned off, taking the model to a fully bearish 0/6. Velocity and short-term transactions have picked up, but this can reflect short-term capitulation rather than an underlying improvement in network usage. Zooming out, it is notable

Week 3 2022 Although the score remains at 1/6, behind the scenes there have been some interesting developments in the Network Demand Model this week. The short-term transaction signal briefly flickered on while MRI has perked up. The bad news is the long-term transaction indicator, the sole source of

Week 2 2022 “All models are wrong, but some are useful”. George Box, University of Wisconsin, 1978 Last week we warned that the bitcoin market was in urgent need of a catalyst. The patterns we are observing have worrying similarities to the price behaviour of 2018 when the price fell

Week 1 2022 The Network Demand Model starts 2022 in subdued mode, remaining on a score of 1/6. The sole indicator remaining in positive territory is long-term transactions. In recent weeks, we have commented on how quiet periods of activity may indicate ‘value’ buying ahead of renewed bursts of

Week 51 2021 The Network Demand Model registers a score of 1/6 for the second week running, with only the short-term transaction indicator in positive territory. On-chain data is unmistakably soft, perhaps unsurprisingly so as investors shut up shop ahead of the year-end, not to mention the elevated levels