Robin Griffiths

Global equity markets have experienced a correction but it hasn’t triggered a significant bearish trend yet. The sell off has been driven by the market recalibrating to a world of stickier than expected US inflation, meaning that the Fed will not be able to deliver as many rate cuts

The global financial landscape is experiencing a surge in investor risk appetite, highlighted by a new high in the Global Stock Bond Ratio and the highest level of risk-taking by Global Fund Managers since November 2021. Additionally, financial conditions have eased since October 2022, bolstering market stimulus. This positive sentiment

Global equity markets have significant momentum with 40% on our radar making new all-time highs. Even though we are late in the cycle, equity valuations are excessive and the US equity market is highly concentrated, fighting the trend is like trying to stop a steamroller using a feather. Newton'

Despite reliable indicators warning of a looming US recession, historical data suggests they can be early. In election years, a resilient trend typically endures until late November, influencing our model's inclination to remain invested in risk assets. Most equity markets, albeit expensive, remain in strong upward trends. A

In 2023 investors faced a challenging landscape as economic growth fundamentals and the stock market took divergent paths. Despite reliable recession indicators signaling potential economic risks in the U.S. this year, the anticipated downturn did not materialize. Instead, the AAA Model maintained a consistent risk-on strategy, remaining fully invested

Stock markets are following the expected seasonal pattern, experiencing a correction between Spring and Autumn and a rally since the end of October. The US equity market has exited correction territory, driven by falling bond yields and a perceived peak in Fed rates. Investors have regained their risk appetite and