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Robin Griffiths

Robin Griffiths

Follow the Powell Spread

Follow the Powell Spread

AAA: April Edition; Equity markets are rallying but few have made annual rolling highs, indicating that the current situation is not the beginning of a new bull market. The moves are simply bear market rallies that could continue until the end of May before falling back later in the year.

Go For Gold

Go For Gold

AAA: March Edition; The US banking system is in crisis. The Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening has resulted in the second and third largest bank failures in the history of the United States. Whilst the authorities have stepped in with guarantees and liquidity facilities, a credit crunch and recession are

Silicon Valley Bank: Never just one cockroach

Silicon Valley Bank: Never just one cockroach

AAA: Flash Note; With the pace and rapidity with which the Fed has been tightening – all the while peddling the “soft landing” narrative – something was bound to break. And it finally has. Last week we saw Silicon Valley Bank shut down by regulators in the second-largest bank failure in US

Rent. Don't Own.

Rent. Don't Own.

AAA: February Edition; Our AAA Model is actively buying the weakest equity markets, in a “dash-to-trash” strategy. Many investors are hoping for a Fed pivot and an economic soft landing, but this optimism is misguided. Despite the decline in the headline USA inflation rate, evidence suggests that the worst may

Dramatic Regime Change

Dramatic Regime Change

AAA: January Edition; A US recession is around the corner and the global manufacturing sector already appears to be in one. We have lived through the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle since the early 80s and are not convinced the bear market is over. Much like a frog being slowly

Bear Necessities

Bear Necessities

AAA: December Edition; The AAA model made a peak of 20% by June. It has lost some of that since, as profit taking has set in, but we still have a winning formula. The Global Equity Bear market will continue into the New Year. Inflation is falling but is still

No Free Lunch

No Free Lunch

AAA: November Edition; Most stock markets rallied last month. On average, the rally was of 16% but after it was over they are all still down 10% this year to date. The rally is not the start of a new bull move but a bear market rally. It will probably