Heavy Going
Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk. This is not investment advice.
There’s been little action this week across the portfolios. Markets are taking a breather as investors try to decipher multiple conflicting signals. Will inflation abate? How can that happen if unemployment is so low? Why is gold going down and bitcoin flat? Why are markets holding up so well when the yield curve is inverted? Why are energy prices rolling over if China is opening up? What is the Fed going to do next? What’s happening with the dollar?
Charlie has positioned the Whisky portfolio cautiously in the knowledge that it’s had a good run and in the expectation that things could get tricky for the bulls. Soda, the lower risk portfolio, is designed to withstand turbulence and provide steadfast performance over the long term, so no changes required there. Whisky is up 5.8% this year and Soda +2.3%. For the time being, it’s about getting the right balance between risk and reward.
Good news! As you’ll see in TMAI’s postbox, our readers have healthily endorsed the idea that the portfolios embrace more international stocks in the future. This will bring greater diversity, and liquidity, to the portfolios. It’s great news and speaks to one of Charlie’s great strengths, so expect to see more overseas ideas fed into Whisky and Soda in future.
In ATOMIC this week, we looked at the structural decline in bitcoin’s velocityand asked what this tells us about the asset’s maturity. We also observe a recent divergence between bitcoin and the gold price. Are these two assets trying to tell us something about the macro outlook? We also make the point that the sign of a good regulator, rather like a good football referee, is that they are largely invisible. The SEC at the moment is anything but, although the good news is that at least one Commissioner acknowledges the fact. Finally - one for the technical analysts - we show that bitcoin has made a “golden cross”, a sign that we have moved out of crypto’s winter, perhaps.
We also introduced a new publication we’ve dubbed ChartBytes. The idea is to highlight some of the ideas generated by the various ByteTree tools, particularly ByteTrend. We hope it helps you gain a greater understanding of the many tools that are at your disposal on the ByteTree Terminal. We’d love to hear your feedback on the product if you have a moment.
Speaking of feedback, thank you so much to those of you who have published a comment on Trustpilot. It is enormously helpful in building our brand and attracting new subscribers, so if you have a moment, keep ‘em coming!
Last but not least, we made a switch in ByteFolio this week. The portfolio has done well in US$ terms, but we’d like to start making greater inroads into the performance relative to bitcoin. As adoption grows and the sector recovery expands, we believe we’re in the right names to make that happen.
Have a great weekend,
Charlie Erith
