Our Highest Conviction Trade
Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk. This is not investment advice.
ByteFolio Issue 97;
With Bitcoin back above $65,000, it’s fair to say the space is back in form, but when I see Dogecoin (DOGE) raise its head, I start to feel queasy. It clearly is worthless and pointless, although amusing; at least it used to amuse Elon Musk. He doesn’t even talk about it anymore because it wouldn’t work as money on Mars, as the block confirmation time would be too long to get to Earth and back.
DOGE has just flipped to a 5-star trend in BCA, the ByteTree Crypto Average, which is the unweighted measure of the space. It is a sign that things are overheating in crypto, and we should urge caution. God help us.
DOGE in BCA
I do not understand why DOGE in BTC has held up so well when it is worthless, but breadth is now 78.5%. In other words, it is quite hard for a crypto token not to have a 5-star trend when measured in US dollars. Those few that have a 0-star trend are in real trouble.
Crypto Breadth in US Dollars
Yet, Bitcoin has been so strong this cycle, so we still haven’t seen a broad altcoin rally. Just 13% of tokens are appreciating faster than Bitcoin.
We have to assume the great altcoin rally is coming, but with halving just six weeks away, we will have to wait for that to pass first. With our portfolio heavily exposed to alts, we are ready.
This week, the analysts are united in a high-conviction trade, which adds to one of our largest positions, an ETH killer. This is what happens when the technicals and fundamentals are aligned.
