Crypto Slowdown
![Crypto Slowdown](/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/bytefolio-research-banner-2.jpg)
Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk. This is not investment advice.
ByteFolio Issue 112;
All the promises of halving that would send Bitcoin to the moon have been empty. Despite strong inflows into the ETFs this year, the price keeps hitting resistance above $70,000. Today, the price is back below the 30-day moving average, and the trend has dropped to a 2/5. Yet, it is still in a longer-term uptrend.
Bitcoin Price
![](https://www.bytetree.com/content/images/2024/06/2024-06-17-bytefolio-112-1.png)
Bad news also comes from the blockchain, where the dollar transactional value has turned down. I don’t know how long this will last, but it appears to be a decisive change. It suggests that we should not be surprised to see a break lower.
Bitcoin Fair Value
![](https://www.bytetree.com/content/images/2024/06/2024-06-17-bytefolio-112-2.png)
My thesis remains unchanged that Bitcoin breaks higher in October, after a summer break. This happened in both 2016 and 2020. It took a six-month break post-halving before the network settled down from the pre-halving hype.
For the tokens, it gets worse. The number of uptrends (5-star trends) is down to 6% in USD and 2.7% in BTC, confirming the space is weak and that alt-season is not around the corner.
Top 100 Token Breadth Is Weak
![](https://www.bytetree.com/content/images/2024/06/2024-06-17-bytefolio-112-3.png)
The downside for Bitcoin is probably limited, but ByteFolio will increase exposure in situations where our conviction has waned.
![](https://www.bytetree.com/content/images/2024/06/2024-06-17-bytefolio-112-4.png)