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In 2023 investors faced a challenging landscape as economic growth fundamentals and the stock market took divergent paths. Despite reliable recession indicators signaling potential economic risks in the U.S. this year, the anticipated downturn did not materialize. Instead, the AAA Model maintained a consistent risk-on strategy, remaining fully invested

Stock markets are following the expected seasonal pattern, experiencing a correction between Spring and Autumn and a rally since the end of October. The US equity market has exited correction territory, driven by falling bond yields and a perceived peak in Fed rates. Investors have regained their risk appetite and

The recent Hamas attack has sent shockwaves globally, sparking fears of a devastating Israeli retaliation. This marks the second active war within just over a year, both with ominous potential for sudden escalation. The aftermath is grimly predictable: surging oil prices, rampant inflation, and stunted economic growth, even if the

Amidst financial turbulence, our message stands firm. While US headline inflation has surged due to the price of oil, core inflation steadily declines, and softer housing and rental costs promise relief ahead. The Federal Reserve's resolute stance on prolonging higher interest rates resonates globally. Despite a robust US

Global stock markets are currently experiencing a correction anticipated by seasonal trends and the Presidential election cycle. Historical data spanning over a century underscores their consistent vigour from January to July, followed by a dip from August to October, particularly in the third year of the Presidential cycle. The AAA

US Inflation has fallen significantly, exciting the market. Many investors believe the Fed has achieved a soft landing, but we disagree. As monetary policy works with long and variable lags, the cumulative effects of the Fed’s rate hikes are yet to be felt. Accordingly, the risk of a recession