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tmai

Black Smoke, Gold, and Bitcoin

Trade in Whisky; I hope you had a good Easter break. If you were watching US markets on Monday, you may have been surprised by the market’s reaction to the Pope’s passing. Digging a little deeper, I discovered it was President Donald Trump who had branded the Federal

Q1 2025 Performance Review

As a matter of record, I publish performance data for the two portfolios in the Multi-Asset Investor, Whisky and Soda, for Q1 2025. With Trump’s tariffs announced on Thursday, 2 April, much has happened over the past two weeks, making Q1 a distant memory of market calm. Regardless, I

Life’s Essentials - Food and Clothing

Trade in Whisky; I hope you’ve survived the recent turmoil. It has been a stressful two weeks, and my highest priority has been capital preservation. That has meant reducing portfolio risk in the areas that might be impacted by the new world chaos. This week, I add a new

Flash Note: Reducing Exposure in the Energy Sector

In light of the continued weakness in the oil price, now below $60 per barrel, I believe we should further reduce exposure to the energy sector.

Capital Preservation During Times of Stress

Trade in Whisky; Yesterday, the VIX spiked higher and reached 60 at the US opening. That is a very high number that has never lasted for very long. It reflects higher future volatility in the stockmarket, derived from inflated option prices, which reflects extreme market uncertainty. The modest dip to

Flash Note: Risk Reduction

Trades in Soda and Whisky; Following yesterday’s note, China has retaliated with 34% retaliatory tariffs, and this is now escalating into a global trade war. The Liberation Day tariffs are disastrous for the stockmarket and the economy. I would expect Trump to act and bring some good news, but

Flash Note: No Action

Given today’s events, I am sharing a few thoughts.