tmai

We live in an era of divergences, and the collapse of the bond market is behind it. Perhaps not just that, but the high asset prices and excessive borrowing that came with an era of low rates. The reversal was always going to be painful; we just didn’t know

With bonds in crisis mode, this is a good time to revisit market momentum and look at the state of equities. This time last year, I wrote about the momentum crash, which would potentially end this bear market. We had a situation where the worst-performing stocks, the losers, were heavily

I want to remind you what we are waiting for, especially in the Soda Portfolio. There are dozens of investment trusts (and closed-ended funds), some quite large and liquid, which offer compelling value. This is a follow-up to my last piece, but it has been right to hold back because

Trade in Whisky; Bond yields have been pushed higher again, but there was a relief yesterday when a Fed official said that this was helping with their tightening efforts. The higher yields would reduce the pressure to keep raising rates, which the markets took well. The trouble is that yields

Trade in Soda; It’s been another few red days for markets, which has spread beyond bonds. I want to look at the pound, inflation-linked bonds (again), and precious metals. Equities are down, but not by nearly as much as you might think. The pound has fallen 8% against the

Trade in Whisky; The price of US treasuries is falling again and rapidly. I show the short-dated to long-dated bonds rebased to $100 on their highest day in April 2020. The 30-year bond is now down 64%, while the 2-year bond is down 9%. For a developed market, this sort