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Trade in Whisky; US equities think it’s a bull market, European equities are scratching their head, while Asian equities see a crisis. In contrast, surging interest rates fight stagflation, commodities see a recession, and the long bond a depression. Gold softness reflects relief in global tensions, while Bitcoin advances

Trade in Whisky; The challenge in 2023 has been the divergence between the economy and the markets. In normal dark times, you’d just buy bonds and be patient, but this cycle has its quirks. It has coincided with the sharpest interest rate hikes in living memory, making bonds extremely

Trade in Whisky; In 2023, equities are up while bonds are down. The big tech stocks have been in the lead, driven by artificial intelligence, animal spirits, and short covering. With bonds selling off again, risk is rising again. I also look at the strength in sterling and the weakness

Trades in Whisky and Soda; The highest returns over the next decade are likely to come from the developing world. A typical developed country is overindebted and has an ageing population. In contrast, a typical emerging country has less debt, a more youthful population (China excepted), and enjoys a faster

There are plenty of cheap securities that will inevitably deliver good results in the long term. Yet in the current environment, finding opportunities that are appreciating in price while being fairly valued and insulated from the risks are severely limited. What the market gives with one hand, it takes away

Trade in Soda; Thankfully, it looks like an agreement will be reached on the US debt ceiling. The good news is that the US government will likely avoid default. Depending on your view, the good or bad news is that that debt can now grow by another $4 trillion over