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Knowns and Unknowns

Knowns and Unknowns

Trade in Soda; It’s been another few red days for markets, which has spread beyond bonds. I want to look at the pound, inflation-linked bonds (again), and precious metals. Equities are down, but not by nearly as much as you might think. The pound has fallen 8% against the

Monetary Versus Fiscal

Monetary Versus Fiscal

Trade in Whisky; The price of US treasuries is falling again and rapidly. I show the short-dated to long-dated bonds rebased to $100 on their highest day in April 2020. The 30-year bond is now down 64%, while the 2-year bond is down 9%. For a developed market, this sort

Dare Forward

Dare Forward

Trade in Whisky; It is no great surprise that I am finding good value in the UK and Europe, more so than in the US. This chart says it all. I have seen most charts at some point, but never this one before. It cleverly estimates how exposed foreigners are

Index-Linked Bonds and Oil

Index-Linked Bonds and Oil

Trade in Whisky; It is time to re-examine index-linked bonds because once we are sure that prices have settled, there is no better risk-free investment out there. Investors receive a return that is backed by the government, compensates for inflation and more. Nothing else does that for certain. I will

The Corporate Debt Dynamic

The Corporate Debt Dynamic

If a company is debt-free and can produce a profit, it’s unusual to go bust, but it is still possible. I have never been a fan of highly indebted companies and have generally steered clear of them for the simple reason they can go bust without notice. Yet the

Going for a Song

Going for a Song

There are a growing number of investment trusts trading on unusually wide discounts, and some of these will be great opportunities. Yet that probably won’t always be the case as some are inevitably troubled. The sector is going through a period of disruption, and it will be the survival

China and The Money Map

China and The Money Map

Trade in Whisky; The Money Map helps us understand what types of asset work best in different environments. If you can predict where inflation and bond yields are headed, which isn’t always easy, then the Money Map tells you where to invest. And more importantly, where not to invest.