Sign in Subscribe

tmai

Reducing Risk

Reducing Risk

Flash Note I recently made the case to add to commodities. The logic was that the Chinese recovery would be strong while the dollar was weakening. Having sold commodity stocks last year after a fabulous run, they had fallen enough, and it was an opportunity to buy. The Chinese recovery

A Closer Look at Japan

A Closer Look at Japan

Investors either take a sceptical view of the world and are prepared for the worst, or they see the risks in plain sight, which they believe are contained. The yen is a controversial trade because you give up yield to own it, yet it has been weak. The idea is

Buffett Sells Stocks, Holds Cash

Buffett Sells Stocks, Holds Cash

I have long been a Buffett observer, and back in 2011, I was worried that his vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, was getting on a bit. If I wanted to attend the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) annual general meeting in Omaha, I had better get on with it. I went, and it

Running Out of Time

Running Out of Time

Over the weekend, the world lost yet another bank, First Republic. $100bn of deposits have already fled, and JP Morgan has swooped in once again. Could we end up with just two banks, the Fed and JP Morgan? Or maybe just JP Morgan. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, says

Risk, Recessions and Melrose

Risk, Recessions and Melrose

This week, I discuss risk management and update you on developments on Melrose. Economic and market indicators are telling us that a recession is getting closer, which inevitably leads to a decline in earnings and a tough environment for stockmarkets. In this issue, I look at the latest warning signs

Buy the Commodities Dip

Buy the Commodities Dip

Trades in Whisky and Soda The animal spirits have returned but with a twist. One of the biggest winners since the autumn, and despite the then crisis in UK politics, has been the pound. It started from a low level and is back to somewhere close to normal. For UK

Wasn't the Fed Supposed to Be Tightening?

Wasn't the Fed Supposed to Be Tightening?

Trade in Whisky Things are not what they seem. In recent months, a trillion dollars of stimulus from Europe, Japan, and China has more than neutralised the Fed’s tightening. Strange though it may seem, this appears to have been enough for markets to shrug off the recent banking crisis.