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Commodities

Commodities

Flash note; Commodity prices are coming under pressure once again. I can continue to make a bullish medium-term case for gold and oil, but we cannot escape the mounting evidence of a Chinese slowdown. The latest casualty has been industrial metals, with copper leading the way down. My hope was

Trouble in China and the Case For Technology

Trouble in China and the Case For Technology

Trades in Soda & Whisky Last October, I felt markets had fallen enough, and a rally was due. This proved correct, but what worked less well was the focus on China, Asia and the emerging markets. There is trouble brewing in China beyond politics, demonstrated by the lacklustre “boom” following

Reducing Risk

Reducing Risk

Flash Note I recently made the case to add to commodities. The logic was that the Chinese recovery would be strong while the dollar was weakening. Having sold commodity stocks last year after a fabulous run, they had fallen enough, and it was an opportunity to buy. The Chinese recovery

A Closer Look at Japan

A Closer Look at Japan

Investors either take a sceptical view of the world and are prepared for the worst, or they see the risks in plain sight, which they believe are contained. The yen is a controversial trade because you give up yield to own it, yet it has been weak. The idea is

Buffett Sells Stocks, Holds Cash

Buffett Sells Stocks, Holds Cash

I have long been a Buffett observer, and back in 2011, I was worried that his vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, was getting on a bit. If I wanted to attend the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) annual general meeting in Omaha, I had better get on with it. I went, and it

Running Out of Time

Running Out of Time

Over the weekend, the world lost yet another bank, First Republic. $100bn of deposits have already fled, and JP Morgan has swooped in once again. Could we end up with just two banks, the Fed and JP Morgan? Or maybe just JP Morgan. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, says

Risk, Recessions and Melrose

Risk, Recessions and Melrose

This week, I discuss risk management and update you on developments on Melrose. Economic and market indicators are telling us that a recession is getting closer, which inevitably leads to a decline in earnings and a tough environment for stockmarkets. In this issue, I look at the latest warning signs