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Crossroads

Crossroads

Having turned defensive in late 2021, we bought the dip in the autumn and have now started to scale back. The risks have risen because inflation is not going away quietly. We find ourselves at another turning point, and we must wait to see what starts to unravel. There are

Too Many Jobs

Too Many Jobs

Trades in Whisky The long-awaited US inflation data came out today at 6.4% for the year. That is 0.1% below last month, but 0.2% above the consensus forecast. This is not what the “transitional” crowd hoped to see. Inflation is falling but slowly. Too slowly for the

Reducing Risk

Reducing Risk

Flash Note In light of Tuesday’s note, I am taking defensive action in the portfolios. The risk is that bond yields start rising again, and that puts downward pressure on the stockmarket. Rate sensitive investments have been prioritized. As always with flash notes, I will explain things in more

Inflation Must Cool to Avoid a 30% Crash in Equities

Inflation Must Cool to Avoid a 30% Crash in Equities

The stockmarket did well in January, which is normally a positive sign for the rest of the year. Yet, with the world in such terrible shape, there is confusion why stocks are up at all. I refer to 2022, when the two biggest problems we faced were a collapsing bond

Emerging Market Bonds

Emerging Market Bonds

Trade in Soda The postbox is bulging with gold-related matters, so please read that further down. In recent pieces, I seem to have confused the audience. I love gold, always have, and always will, but there are tactics around trading it. My actionable investment views on gold are expressed here

Revisiting Oil, Questioning Silver

Revisiting Oil, Questioning Silver

Trades in Soda and Whisky Commodity prices have kept us alert, but then again, they always do. They collapsed in 2020, when the world economy shut down, taking US oil futures briefly into negative territory, only to surge again when the economy reopened. In recent years, we have owned various

The Return of Dividends

The Return of Dividends

Trade in Soda Markets continue to surprise this year. Inflation is falling, especially in Europe, where electricity and natural gas prices are collapsing. North Sea gas prices are down over 50% over the past month and are 80% lower than they were last August. Despite still being twice the ten-year