Sign in Subscribe

tmai

Sovereign Risk

Sovereign Risk

In my last Atlas Pulse, I wrote how the US 10-year yield above 4% was dangerous. When it happened last October, for 18 days, it brought down the UK government. This time, it only managed one day, but the casualty list comprises five banks (if we include First Republic). To

Reducing Risk - Part 2

Reducing Risk - Part 2

Flash Note The banking sector remains under pressure with the latest concern being Credit Suisse (CSGN SW). The shares have fallen below CHF 2 (from CHF 50 a decade ago). Concerns have grown over its viability, with a leading shareholder having ruled out a lifeline. The risk is that the

There Is Never Just One Cockroach

There Is Never Just One Cockroach

Ideas to invest your cash Where is it safe to park cash? After 15 years of zero interest rates, followed by the fastest tightening cycle in history, something was going to break. The irony is that it was the banks. As Buffett once said, “what you find is there'

Reducing Risk

Reducing Risk

Flash Note Over the weekend, you will likely have read about the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which has gone into liquidation. Bailouts tend to happen at weekends, as there are two days to negotiate terms while the market is closed.

What the Money Map Is Telling Us

What the Money Map Is Telling Us

Just like the real world has seasons, financial markets have regimes that favour certain asset types over others at different times. To better understand this, I created The Money Map, which tells you how to invest according to conditions created by interest rates and inflation. It has been a faithful

Higher Rates and Lower Houses

Higher Rates and Lower Houses

A typical UK house has risen by 140 times since the 1950s. Over a similar timeframe, houses have broadly done twice as well as the stockmarket (excluding dividends). This defies all reasonable expectations because homes are less risky than equities, and long-term risk-seeking investors are supposed to be compensated with

Crossroads

Crossroads

Having turned defensive in late 2021, we bought the dip in the autumn and have now started to scale back. The risks have risen because inflation is not going away quietly. We find ourselves at another turning point, and we must wait to see what starts to unravel. There are