Sign in Subscribe

tmai

The Tariff Man

It has been an eventful weekend. Trump has upset the Mexicans, the Canadians, the Colombians, the European Union, the Chinese a little, and the South Africans who were branded racist. He would have upset the United Kingdom, but rumours have it that the Trump administration was struggling to see what

Flash Note

Flash Note

Trade in Whisky

Time to Revisit China

Time to Revisit China

Trade in Whisky; Last Friday, Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Marc Andreessen told the world that DeepSeek R1 was one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs he’d ever seen. DeepSeek is an open-sourced AI tool created by a Chinese company, which has matched or exceeded the capabilities of the

Trump’s $36 Trillion Inheritance

Trump’s $36 Trillion Inheritance

Trades in Soda and Whisky; During the inauguration speech, European markets were already closed, and the US stock and bond markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day. That left FX, Bitcoin, gold, and Latin American stocks as the only available price signals. Gold rose, and Bitcoin fell, having spiked

Back to the Banks

Back to the Banks

Trades in Soda and Whisky; On 4 December 2024, just a few weeks ago, the Bank of England pointed to four rate cuts this year as inflation would come down faster than we thought it would. Much has changed since then, and UK inflation expectations have shot up. What looked

The Multi-Asset Investor: Flash Note

The Multi-Asset Investor: Flash Note

Trade in Soda; Following my recent note it has become clear that the long-end of the bond market is in trouble. In November, I had taken the view that the yield back at 2002 levels represented good value and would prove effective should the stockmarket turn down. That level was

Bonds and Rebalancing Bitcoin

Bonds and Rebalancing Bitcoin

Trades in Whisky and Soda; On Monday, 20th January, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President. They say a week is a long time in politics; well, that’s nearly two. Before we even consider what happens in the first 100 days, he will probably be sentenced