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weekly-roundup

Stagflation

Stagflation

US inflation expectations (breakevens) are rising again. This derives from the relationship between conventional bonds and inflation-linked bonds (TIPS). Breakevens are moving higher because conventionals are falling sharply while TIPS are more stable. TIPS have inflation protection built in, and so the resulting price difference reflects what investors expect inflation

The Comedy of Inflation

The Comedy of Inflation

US consumer price inflation rose to 3.7% (core 4.3%) against the Fed’s target of 2%. An American comedian posing as a Nobel Prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman, said that if you exclude food, energy, shelter and used cars, then inflation was below target. The trouble with Krugman’s

Driving Through the Valuation Gap

Driving Through the Valuation Gap

Over the past decade, the world’s automotive stocks have been valued at a trillion dollars up until the pandemic. Then, the central banks printed money like never before, and by late 2021, the value exploded to $2.5 trillion before settling back to $1.8 trillion today. The Top

Value Investors Gain the Upper Hand

Value Investors Gain the Upper Hand

It’s been a heavy week of data. Inflation fell in Europe and the UK, and the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve paused their aggressive interest rate hikes. Phew. Relief, you might think, but US and European bonds sold off again while growth stocks took a tumble. Gold

Gold, Uranium and UK Small Caps

Gold, Uranium and UK Small Caps

My good friend, John Reade, chief strategist of the World Gold Council, picked up the latest Shanghai Gold Premium, something we haven’t seen for a while. Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange normally trades at the same price as in the global market, but occasionally it deviates. Currently, gold

The Price of Luxury and Our New Venture

The Price of Luxury and Our New Venture

LVMH (MC) has become Europe’s most valuable company. Last year, they sold €80 billion of luxury goods from 75 different brands, mainly in fashion and clothing. The business of luxury is remarkable because it seems to be one of the few areas outside of software that can make supernormal

The Benefits of 30-Year Mortgages

The Benefits of 30-Year Mortgages

UK House prices are back in the news because they have been coming under pressure. Unsurprisingly, that has sent the housebuilding stocks downwards, some more than 50%. That appears to be a painful correction, given how shallow this fall in house prices has been thus far. Are the Housebuilders Forecasting